Smith a better value than top-five QB in 2023

February 4, 2023 cc Leave a comment

Q&A series: We take a look at some big questions about the Seahawks’ salary cap situation and roster.

Today’s question: Instead of paying big money to Geno Smith, should the Seahawks draft a QB or go with Drew Lock and use cap space on other positions?

There remains a subset of fans and media who think the formula for winning the Super Bowl is a quarterback on a rookie contract and a team built around that player.

The main data point for their argument is the fact that no team has won a Super Bowl with a QB who has taken up more than 13.1% of the team’s salary cap. Russell Wilson, a former third-round pick with a cap hit of $681,000 when the Seahawks won the Super Bowl, is the bellwether for that theory.

The fact is that, in the salary cap era (1994 to now), 75% of the time the Super Bowl-winning QB has been in the top three in team cap percentage, according to a 2022 study by Bookies.com. Three QBs on rookie deals have won it in the past 11 years, but most of the winners fell in the range of 10.6% to 12.3% of team cap.

In other words, there is no rhyme or reason to the trend.

If the Chiefs beat the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII, Patrick Mahomes will become the first QB over 13.1% (Steve Young in 1994) to win it. Mahomes took up 17.2% of the Chiefs’ cap this season.

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Free agency, The roster

‘A dream opportunity’: Roster review and offseason to-dos

January 29, 2023 cc Leave a comment

Pete Carroll and John Schneider clearly were happy they defied most expectations and put together a playoff team in 2022. But they know they have work to do, both citing the 49ers as their paragon as they enter the second half of a two-year franchise build using high draft picks.

As Schneider told Seattle Sports Radio, the 49ers are “the biggest, fastest, most physical football team in the National Football League. And we gotta get back to that. No questions asked. … We know what we need to do to attack this thing and take the next step.”

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Contracts, Free agency

Cap situation makes franchise tag for Geno Smith unlikely

January 21, 2023 cc Leave a comment

While the franchise tag seems like an easy fallback option for the Seahawks to retain Geno Smith, a close look at their salary cap situation reveals that they probably are not going to use it – or, if they do, it won’t be for long.

If they do not use it by the March 7 deadline, they would have until March 13, when free agency discussions with other teams can begin, to get a deal with Smith.

Here’s why.

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State of the team

Lots of optimism, but Hawks have to ‘do something with it’

January 18, 2023 cc 7 Comments

In the wake of a surprising (to most) playoff appearance, there is a lot of optimism about the immediate future of the Seahawks. Many seem to think it’s automatic that the team will take the next step and contend next season.

But John Schneider and Pete Carroll have a lot of work to do to convert those positive vibes into a team that can yield positive results in the playoffs. As Carroll said, “It’s nothing unless we do something with it.”

There are two main things to do: Secure the quarterback position and remake the defensive front seven.

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Free agency, Playoffs: At San Francisco

Report: Hawks willing to pay (or tag) Geno

January 14, 2023 cc Leave a comment

The Seahawks reportedly are willing to pay Geno Smith $32 million a year – the projected value of the franchise tag.

According to NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport, Smith will be back – whether it’s on a new contract or the tag.

After the Seahawks beat the Rams 19-16 in overtime in Week 18 to set up a playoff spot (with a later win by Detroit over Green Bay), Smith and Pete Carroll both were asked about the quarterback’s future.

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Free agency, Week 17: NY Jets

Time to look at Geno’s season and value

January 3, 2023 cc 1 Comment

Before the season, we expected the Seahawks would end up 8-9 — leaning on a strong running game and a defense that would force some takeaways to make up for inconsistent play at quarterback.

Well, here they are, right where we projected them – 8-8 with a shot at 9-8 and the playoffs (if Green Bay loses in Week 18, too). They have gotten here largely the way we thought they would – the huge difference being that they got a Pro Bowl season out of QB Geno Smith rather than having to use a combo of Smith and Drew Lock throughout the season.

Smith just beat his old team, the Jets, to get to 8-8. He did it with the help of that running game, which has been streaky rather than strong this season, and the turnovers, which have gone both ways all year (the win over the Jets was the first game in which the Hawks did not lose a turnover).

Once this season ends – whether it is with a playoff game or not – there will be plenty of debate about whether the Hawks should pay Smith top money to return. Some have wanted to extend him since September. We said, “Let’s wait and see.”

With the season almost finished, we now have seen. So let’s look at how he fared and how he and the Seahawks might fit into what could be a very interesting quarterback market.

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Week 16: At Kansas City

Predictable loss in KC again shows Schneider what he needs to do

December 25, 2022 cc 4 Comments

The Seahawks were not going to beat Kansas City. Everyone knew that from the moment the schedule came out back in May.

There was perhaps some hope this week that the Hawks could score against what seemed to be a susceptible Chiefs defense. But, instead, the 24-10 loss was another referendum on the Seahawks’ need for better players on both lines and for Pete Carroll and Clint Hurtt to figure out how to get their defenders to tackle.

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The roster, Week 15: San Francisco

Hawks again need to build a defense to match the 49ers

December 21, 2022 cc Leave a comment

The 49ers have what the Seahawks need: The division title and the defense required to attain it.

Led by Nick Bosa, the 49ers have the best defense in the league – one that reminds some of the Legion of Boom that led Seattle to three division titles and two Super Bowls.

“They look just like us,” former LOBer K.J. Wright said on Seattle Sports Radio after the 49ers swept the Seahawks for the first time since 2011.

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Week 15: San Francisco

Carroll senses defense is riding a new wave

December 17, 2022 cc 4 Comments

With three games left, the Seahawks are right where we thought they would be: At 7-7 and likely on the way to our predicted 8-9 – unless their defense takes another jump from the minor one it made Thursday in a 21-13 loss to the 49ers.

Yeah, the Hawks blew two coverages on George Kittle’s touchdowns, dropped a pick and gave up a clinching 55-yard run at the end of the game. But they held the 49ers to two touchdowns (the third was a gimme by the offense) and just 115 rushing yards before Jordan Mason’s long run.

“This was the best game we’ve had in a while, and we played solid,” Pete Carroll said Friday on Seattle Sports Radio.

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Week 14: Carolina

Miscast front seven fails again — and there is no fix this season

December 12, 2022 cc 3 Comments

It has become obvious over the last month: The Seahawks simply do not have the horses up front to make the playoffs. If they get in, it will be because Washington or New York stumbled worse in the final month.

The Seahawks’ defensive front seven continues to be a major problem. Their big men are not good enough to beat five-on-three blocking in the running game, and their linebackers are not savvy enough to position themselves properly or big enough to shed blocks against the run.

Carolina ran for 223 yards, and Seattle now has given up 209.5 rushing yards per game over the past four – losing three of them and falling back out of the playoff race with this loss.

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