The Seahawks’ reported pending addition of Terrion Arnold is a bet on a lot of things: (1) Arnold being available to play, (2) Arnold being worth it on the field, (3) Arnold not being a huge distraction to the team, (4) Arnold not ending up in prison and making John Schneider and Mike Macdonald look like complete fools.

You have to hope the bet is more like an insider trading investment than a pure roulette spin. In other words, hopefully Schneider and Macdonald have garnered information about the legal case that makes them think Arnold (a) did not commit the crime and (b) is going to be available to play for them for the majority of the season.

We should hear from the team leaders about this when they officially sign Arnold. They certainly owe an explanation to fans and the community about the decision to sign a guy accused of eight felonies.

There obviously are reasons they are optimistic about this move – reasons that go beyond thinking the cornerback can help them and thinking he is a good guy who got into a bad situation.

What matters much more is whether Arnold’s attorneys are able to show he was not as involved in the alleged kidnappings/beatings as the state has suggested.

The biggest early win was the judge in the case allowing a $1 million bond for Arnold and reportedly saying there was no preliminary evidence that the NFL player was directly involved in the crimes.  

“What distinguishes Mr. Arnold from those other six (co-defendants) is he has no hands on, he never goes into the apartment, there’s nothing on his phone, on his social media, on his texts,” Judge Christopher Sabella said at a hearing in June. “What the state has to connect Mr. Arnold through the principal theory, currently, is the testimony of the two co-defendants that were facing life in prison, who this court didn’t have the ability to personally judge their credibility. I have no doubt that that is what they said, but that’s going to be a very important thing for the state to get to the fourth quarter in this process.”

Arnold pleaded not guilty (in writing) on July 31, per Bob Condotta. A status hearing is scheduled for Oct. 5, at which time a trial date could be picked or a plea deal announced or charges dropped or reduced. A trial, if needed, likely would not occur until after the season.

So, as far as the legal process is concerned, Arnold should be a free man all season. But NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has a big say in his freedom to play football.

The Seahawks already seem to have determined that Arnold will be available for the preseason, based on team interactions witnessed via “Hard Knocks.” But, before the season, Goodell could – and probably would, based on history – put him on the exempt list (which prevents a player from engaging in any on-field activities) until the case concludes (charges dropped, a plea deal made or a trial finished). That would keep him off the 53-man roster and out of games.

So, if no legal decisions are made before the Oct. 5 hearing, the best-case scenario seems to be that Arnold might be available to them Week 5 against San Francisco. That’s only if the criminal case is resolved at that point, via dropped charges or a plea deal. But a plea deal also might result in a longer stint on the exempt or suspended list. Worst case, he stays on the exempt list all season and the Seahawks end up wasting a little over $1 million on him (exempt list is considered paid leave).

This case is reminiscent of the Quinton Dunbar situation in 2020. Dunbar, a cornerback whom the Seahawks acquired in a trade in March of that year, was arrested in May, put on the exempt list in late July and taken off Aug. 8, the day after charges were dropped. He reported to Seahawks camp Aug. 9.

The Hawks are gambling this works out similarly – and that Arnold turns into a much better contributor than Dunbar was.

Let’s hope they have made a smart, well-informed bet and it pays off.