If history is any predictor, Geno Smith will lead the Seahawks to the playoffs in Mike Macdonald’s first season – and then be replaced shortly thereafter.

John Schneider has been involved in a new Seattle coach’s transition period with a lame-duck quarterback twice before and been instrumental in finding the franchise quarterback both times.  

In 2000, Schneider joined the Seahawks in Mike Holmgren’s second year. Holmgren’s team had made the playoffs in his first year with inherited quarterback Jon Kitna leading the way. But then the Hawks sank to 6-10 in 2000 (Kitna going 6-6 and Brock Huard going 0-4), and Holmgren went looking for an upgrade at the position.

Schneider went back to Green Bay in 2001 and immediately helped broker a trade of Matt Hasselbeck to Seattle. It took a year and an injury to Trent Dilfer, but Hasselbeck eventually became the franchise QB Holmgren hoped he would be. He led the Hawks to five straight playoff seasons and the Super Bowl.

Hasselbeck outlasted Holmgren in Seattle, long enough to become the next lame-duck QB as Schneider returned in 2010 and Pete Carroll replaced one-year dud Jim Mora as coach.

Like Kitna before him, Hasselbeck helped the new coach make the playoffs in his first season (despite a 7-9 record). And then, like Kitna before him, Hasselbeck was replaced. This time it happened in Year 2.

Schneider and Carroll knew they didn’t have his permanent replacement yet. All they had for 2011 was Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst (they had traded for the latter in 2010). Those two were good/bad enough for another 7-9 record (but no playoff spot this time).

Schneider went back to the Green Bay well in 2012, signing Matt Flynn, whom he had helped draft in 2008. The hope was he would be Hasselbeck 2.0. But then Schneider also found Russell Wilson in the 2012 draft — and he became the unexpected final piece to Seattle’s Super Bowl contender.

Wilson has been gone for a couple of years now, replaced by Smith, and now Carroll has been replaced by Macdonald, who – like Carroll and Holmgren before him – inherits a short-term QB.

Macdonald acknowledged that in his presser this week when he said, “We’ll see how the whole situation shakes out over time.”

Some fans and media think the Hawks will part with Smith in the next month or so to avoid paying him $22.5 million this year. That seems unlikely.

If the trend continues, the Seahawks will make the playoffs next season, with Smith leading the way. Then it just depends on whether Schneider has found Macdonald’s quarterback yet. The third year has been the magic marker, but will Schneider try to accelerate the handoff this time?

When Schneider was in Green Bay, they drafted quarterbacks seemingly every year even though they had Brett Favre. In Schneider’s 12 years over two stints (1993-96 and 2002-09), the Packers drafted QBs seven times. That included Aaron Rodgers in 2005. The Packers also drafted three others, including Hasselbeck (1998), in the five years Schneider was with other teams.

In 14 years in Seattle, Schneider has traded for one QB and drafted two. It’s time for him to go back to his Green Bay roots – something he occasionally has lamented getting away from during his Seattle stint.

With the 16^th pick in this draft, Schneider should be in good position – whether he stays or moves around — to draft Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, Oregon’s Bo Nix or Washington’s Michael Penix Jr.

If Schneider does that, it would seem natural that Smith would start just one more season in Seattle and the rookie would be expected to step up in 2025.

It’s hard to imagine Schneider passing on a QB yet again, especially with the 2024 class being much stronger than the projected 2025 class. But it’s also very possible the draft will not fall Seattle’s way. Maybe McCarthy and Nix are taken in the top 15; maybe someone gets Penix before Seattle wants to draft him.

Then what? Maybe Schneider takes a mid-round flyer on Tulane’s Michael Pratt, South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler or Florida State’s Jordan Travis. We don’t think he will try to trade for Chicago’s Justin Fields, but maybe he picks up a young veteran castoff like he did with Drew Lock. Maybe Lock is that young vet, returning for a third season in Seattle. (To be clear, Lock is not the future though.)

Whether Schneider gets the next franchise QB this year or next or even in 2026, it will happen. He has done it before. In the meantime, expect Smith to lead the way in 2024 – and to lead the Hawks back to the playoffs.

That’s just how it goes when Seattle hires a coach who inherits a lame-duck quarterback.