Thanks to Ryan Grubb’s increasingly listless offense, John Schneider has some difficult decisions regarding Geno Smith and DK Metcalf in the coming offseason.

The 6-point performance in Chicago the day after Christmas was just the latest indicator that Grubb has had a negative effect on the quarterback and receiver.

Both players are still signed for another season, and Schneider needs to decide whether to extend one or both OR move on from one or both OR let them play out their deals — presumably under a new offensive coordinator.

The fan base seems fairly evenly split on both polarizing players, some thinking the Hawks really need them and some thinking it is time to trade Metcalf and/or upgrade over Smith.

Mike Macdonald seems to be a big Geno fan, saying after the loss to the Vikings last weekend:

Here is Mike Macdonald's full answer on @SeattleSports when asked about standing by Geno Smith. Mike views Geno as the guy consistently putting Seattle in position to win games.

Also here's Mike's answer when presented Geno's TD-INT ratio as a counterpoint. pic.twitter.com/7f2IUQ8XUk

— Dugar, Michael-Shawn (@MikeDugar) December 23, 2024

We land right in the middle of the debate on both Smith and Metcalf and would therefore let them play out their deals — with the caveat that we would consider a Metcalf trade if the return were at least a first-rounder AND the Hawks could add a solid No. 2 receiver to go with Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Smith wants a new deal, and Macdonald sounds like he would be good with that. But the quarterback has little leverage after a very inconsistent season. He has thrown for a lot of yards (4,097 — second in the NFL), but he also has too few touchdown passes (17) and too many interceptions (15, second most in the NFL).

After a really hot first month when he was carrying the offense, he suddenly became tentative and mistake prone. In the first four weeks, he ranked eighth in QB efficiency, per RBSDM. After he was sacked seven times by the Giants in a game the Seahawks essentially gave away, his efficiency and consistency dropped. He stopped finding escape routes when the pocket broke down, failed to step up into the pocket, held the ball too long at times even when protection was good, missed seeing open receivers and failed in the red zone way too often.

He had terrible games in the 36-24 loss to 49ers and the 26-20 overtime loss to the Rams (he gave that game away with three picks). He and the offense were totally ineffective against Buffalo (31-10 loss), Arizona (16-6 win on defensive score), Green Bay (30-13 loss) and Chicago (6-3 win), and he threw two interceptions in a 27-24 loss to Minnesota. He has thrown a league-high four red-zone interceptions; the Hawks are 5-1 when he does not throw a pick.

Smith now ranks 15th in QB efficiency. He ranked eighth in 2022 and 13th in 2023, so this is a definite step back. And Grubb is largely the one to blame.

Grubb has not helped Smith at all, failing to run the ball enough, refusing to use play action (a very effective weapon for Smith) and basically telegraphing his plays to defenses via his basic formations. His red-zone schemes have largely been terrible, and he has no idea how to convert short-yardage situations.

What Smith needs more than a new contract is a new coordinator and an upgraded line.

The fans who want to replace Smith do not have any better options. As noted, Smith is still a top-15 QB. He just needs to rediscover his consistency next season.

So let him play it out, alongside Metcalf, and see how they do with a hopefully better operation under a play caller who knows how to win in the NFL.

What about their contracts?

Plenty of fans are concerned about the cap hits for both Smith and Metcalf next year: Smith’s is $38.5 million (plus a possible $6 million more off escalators); Metcalf’s is $31.9 million.

Some fans see the Hawks appearing to be $6 million over the cap (via OTC), but the fact is the Hawks could have $47 million in cap space via trades and releases.

Tyler Lockett, Dre Jones, Rayshawn Jenkins and Roy Robertson-Harris do not merit the money they are being paid, and those four likely will be gone (maybe one or two might stay under much cheaper deals). If Noah Fant and George Fant also are dropped, that would get Seattle to the $47 million number above.

Even if Smith hits three $2 million escalators (for yards, completion percentage, team wins/playoffs), that would leave $41 million in cap space. Take away $12 million or so for draft picks, practice squad and in-season moves, and that is still $29 million for veteran spending.

The Hawks have only one major pending free agent: Ernest Jones. His 2025 cap hit on a new deal might be around $5 million, leaving $24 million to upgrade the offensive line with at least one good vet and to replenish the D-line (Jarran Reed is a UFA as well).

If the Hawks were to get a great offer for Metcalf, trading him would add another nearly $11 million in cap space. But then they would need to replace him. If that were to happen, maybe Noah Fant could stay and become a bigger factor under a smarter OC.

What extensions could look like

Let’s cover all of the bases here and look at what extensions might look like if Macdonald and Schneider already know they want to keep one or both of Smith and Metcalf.

As we pointed out, Smith ranks 15th among QBs in the efficiency metric. His $25 million APY ranks 19th, right behind Derek Carr ($37.5 million) and Baker Mayfield ($33.3 million). Both of those guys are higher in the efficiency rank — Mayfield at 10th and Carr at 12th. So Smith does not really have a great argument for being paid more than those guys.

But the Hawks might be open to a two-year, $60 million extension that gets him to the $30 million mark in APY. That could save at least $8 million in cap space for 2025 and buy Schneider time to find Macdonald a long-term starter.

Metcalf has had an underwhelming and frustrating year thanks to Grubb’s poor schemes. The receiver has a career-low four TDs and has one game left to add to his 63 catches, which are the fewest since his rookie year.

He averages $24 million right now, which ranks 13th in the NFL. Despite his subpar season, he probably would want $30 million a year, to put him up there with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tyreek Hill and Brandon Aiyuk. It is hard to see the Seahawks seeing that as a worthy deal right now, but they might want to take the long game with him and hope their offense performs better during his extension years.

But the bottom line is the Hawks do not need to do anything with the contracts of Smith and Metcalf. Just let it all play out under a new OC and then judge whether the players deserve new deals.