
Whenever we get to the point that the Seahawks need help to make the postseason, we start looking ahead to the offseason – because it typically means the team is not good enough to win in the playoffs even if it gets whatever assistance it needs to sneak in.
Mike Macdonald has done a pretty strong job in his rookie year, creating a strong defense and having the Hawks in position where they could have been 12-3 if they had not given away four games via their own errors.
They blew yet another one Sunday, letting Minnesota get away with a 27-24 win because the defense made some key mistakes that the enigmatic offense could not overcome in the end. So the Hawks sit at 8-7, which is exactly where we figured they would be when we projected out the season back in late August.
The Hawks can still make the playoffs if they beat the Bears and Rams AND (1) the Rams also lose to Arizona this week or (2) a whole bunch of other teams do their part over the final two weeks to give Seattle the strength-of-victory tiebreaker against the Rams.
We’ll let that sort itself out, but it’s time to start looking to the changes that need to be made in the offseason.
The defense is actually pretty well set through 2026. The two biggest needs in 2025 will be re-signing Ernest Jones and finding a very stout nose tackle, if possible.
The huge questions are on offense. Will Macdonald replace OC Ryan Grubb? Will John Schneider do a better job of trying to patch up the offensive line? Will Geno Smith be back? Will they extend DK Metcalf?
Macdonald and Schneider have to take a hard look at everything about this unit. It is poorly run from the top, has terrible personnel inside and has no long-term answer at quarterback. There are only two surefire building blocks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Charles Cross. Metcalf could be the third, if extended, and Abe Lucas might become one next year.
We already have said Grubb needs to go. The loss to the Vikings did nothing to change that thought. While his offense managed to score three touchdowns – a much better showing than it had against the Packers – the fact is Grubb’s guys look discombobulated far too often and he is pretty automated (i.e., predictable) in how he calls games. He also is very allergic to the run. It often looks like he is reading straight from “Football for Dummies.” He didn’t do enough this season to help his quarterback and line, and he does not seem equipped to consistently call winning plays in the NFL.
So, a new OC and a vastly upgraded interior line are very obvious needs. Quarterback is a tougher question.
It is hard to evaluate Smith properly, given he was hamstrung by a neophyte OC and a shabby line. Some fans think he succeeds despite those limitations. Some think he is the reason the Hawks lose big games like this one, when he was picked off twice. The truth is right in the middle, of course. It all works hand in hand.
We wonder whether Smith could win playoff games if he had a good coordinator and at least an average line. By the same token, people who want to replace him need to ask whether another QB could perform better in a similar situation – a dud OC and dudlier line. And is a better QB going to be available in 2025?
The top pending free agents are Sam Darnold, who just beat the Hawks; former Hawk Russell Wilson, who figures to stay as Pittsburgh’s starter; fading 36-year-old Kirk Cousins, just replaced by Michael Penix Jr. in Atlanta; and Daniel Jones, learning from Kevin O’Connell in Minnesota alongside Darnold.
None of those guys are better than Smith, who likely would be doing just as well as Darnold and Wilson if he had their play callers (Macdonald reportedly wanted Steelers OC Arthur Smith).
Smith wants an extension, but he has not played well enough this season to merit one. The Hawks have tons of salary cap levers they can pull without worrying about his contract, so just don’t do anything with it in 2025. Let him play it out.
Here’s a quick look at what we would try to do at every position in 2025:
Quarterback
Keep Smith as the starter for another year while looking around for a promising young player to replace Sam Howell and be the potential 2026 starter.
Running back
The trio of Ken Walker, Zach Charbonnet and Kenny McIntosh is set through 2025. Walker has been hobbled by nagging injuries and a bad line, so he is not worth extending. At this point, we would let him walk in 2026 free agency. But that could change if it all comes together in grand fashion in 2025.
Wide receiver
Tyler Lockett is an obvious cut, which would save $17 million. Metcalf will enter the final year of his deal, at a cap hit of $31.9 million. Teams seem to ask every year whether he is available via trade, because the guy is a game breaker when used right. He would cost $30 million a year to extend. Probably best to just let him play it out under a new OC and see what happens. That also could give Schneider time to find a new partner for JSN. Of course, if someone makes a great trade offer (a first-rounder or better), we would consider it.
Tight end
The Hawks just never use their tight ends enough to justify what Schneider pays them, so we would let Noah Fant go ($9 million savings) and also replace the terrible Pharaoh Brown. A.J. Barner is an inconsistent blocker, but he has come up with some big catches as a rookie. Go with Barner, Brady Russell and another cheap blocker (via free agency or the draft).
Offensive line
Make it a clean sweep on the inside, finding a dependable starting center and guard. Olu Olu should be a backup at center. At right guard, maybe Sataoa Laumea can be the answer. But they definitely need a better left guard than Laken Tomlinson.
Defensive line
Upgrade at nose tackle over Johnathan Hankins. Cut Dre Jones to save about $12 million. Jarran Reed has been pretty solid this season, but he will be a 33-year-old free agent. Roy Robertson-Harris does not play enough to merit keeping at $6.6 million. Maybe keep Reed or RRH for cheaper. Then get a solid nose to anchor. Superstar Leonard Williams and young potential star Byron Murphy II obviously will lead this group.
Outside linebacker
The trio of Uchenna Nwosu, Derick Hall and Boye Mafe will return. Here’s hoping for a healthy year out of Nwosu, who has missed big chunks of the past two. Mafe will be in a contract year. He has shown flashes of dominance but nothing to merit giving him a big extension. He is third on the team with five sacks (Williams has seven, Hall has six), tied for second with seven tackles for loss and fifth in QB hits (10). Hall is a year behind Mafe in NFL time, but he also is three years younger (23 to 26), so he might be the one to extend in 2026.
Inside linebacker
Re-sign Ernest Jones. The top five inside linebackers in the NFL average at least $13 million. The next five are at $10 million to $12.5 million. Jones figures to get at least top-10 money. The Hawks should pay it. They can improve their depth behind Jones and Ty Knight through the draft.
Cornerback
Try to trade Riq Woolen, if he has any value. He is not smart nor reliable enough to play for Macdonald. Josh Jobe will be an RFA, so the Hawks should tender him to return as one starter. Re-sign Tre Brown for cheap and maybe draft another corner to compete with Nehemiah Pritchett. Add a cheap vet to round out the competition.
Safety
Cut Rayshawn Jenkins to reclaim $5.4 million in cap space. They have another year of Coby Bryant, and Julian Love is signed through 2027. Give Jerrick Reed, A.J. Finley or another youngster a shot at the third safety spot.
QB: Agree. I’m not a huge Geno fan, but we likely can’t do better for another year or two. He’s not getting any younger , though.
RB: This is how I see it. I’m not against taking RBs early in the draft, but it seems pointless when the O-line isn’t any good.
WR: I wouldn’t take less than a #2 for DK. (A first is probably out of reach.) Assuming the Steelers keep Russell, I have to think they’d be interested in Metcalf.
TE: Schneider seems to have a completely different idea of what TEs are for than his coaches. My hope here is that he asks MM what he wants and drafts accordingly. Don’t waste any more money on FAs like Brown, Everett, and Dickson.
OL: This has a chance to improve only if Schneider assumes personal responsibility for the debacles of the last 8-10 years and approaches building an OL as if his job depends on it. (His legacy certainly does.) I have no confidence that he will do this. I will never understand drafting Charbonnet over O’Cyrus Torrence.
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DL: Concur.
OLB: Some have Nwosu as a salary cap casualty, but—short of his failing a physical—I don’t see it. Effective pass rushers are too rare and too valuable, especially when you have a bird in hand. His cap hit is big, though. Hall has taken a huge jump this year—I’m excited to see what he can do in 2025. Mafe is useful—maybe one of those guys who benefits from having better players around him. No harm in letting him develop another year.
ILB: Signing Jones seems like a top priority, but I wonder whether he will price himself out of Schneider’s salary cap structure. Meanwhile, Knight is a find. MM wanted him, and it’s easy to see why. Depth is a concern here.
CB: Woolen at his best is awfully good. Whether to stick with him or not is one where I’m inclined to go with MM’s judgment.
S: Concur.
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