As John Schneider gets ready to run his first draft without Pete Carroll at his side, plenty of fans think everything is suddenly going to change – because of course Carroll was pulling all of the strings and was the reason the Seahawks were in the bottom third of the league in drafting success over the last decade.

Schneider debunked that idea earlier this month on his radio show, confirming Carroll had the power to “put his foot down” but he “rarely, rarely, rarely did that.”

“John was in control on draft day and will continue to be,” said Nolan Teasley, Seattle’s assistant GM. “The process stays consistent, so I don’t foresee a lot of change in that regard.”

That’s bad news for fans who thought Carroll was running the draft show all these years. Schneider has been pretty subpar at drafting ever since the historic 2010-12 run. According to a 2022 ESPN study, the Seahawks ranked first in the league in draft value since 2012.

But, if you take out that 2012 draft that netted Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner and start with 2013, the Hawks ranked just 21^st in the league. The last 11 drafts have been middling or worse: The 2013 draft ranked in the bottom 11, the 2014 draft bottom eight, and the 2017 and 2019 drafts were not good either (DK Metcalf notwithstanding).

The last two draft classes have featured some high picks thanks to the Wilson trade, and now Schneider is picking 16^th – which puts him in a prime spot to get a true first-round talent for a third straight year.

As he repeated last week, each draft typically has 15-20 guys with actual first-round grades. That’s what this draft purportedly has. He also confirmed that is why he used to trade his pick so much – seven straight years.

“If you are in the late 20s, you are really picking in the second round anyway, so why not acquire another pick?” he said on his radio show.

This time the Hawks are sitting right on the edge of the true first round. Schneider sounds like he might be content to sit still or at least not drop too far: “How far back are you gonna go? Where’s your cutoff? Because you get into the third round pretty quick, too. You might only have 15-18 guys in the second round.”

The problem Schneider faces is this: He has never had a 64-pick gap on Day 1-2, so does he move off an impact position to get another Day 2 pick? Or does he stay at 16, take a sure contributor and maybe find a way to move up from 81 to reduce that gap?

Insiders report that lots of teams will be angling to get offensive tackles, so the Hawks could have plenty of suitors for the 16th pick.

Daniel Jeremiah: “To summarize my last 5 phone calls: Everyone is moving up for an OT.”

Dane Brugler: “It’s a very top-heavy OT class. Better get your guy early.”

Among the teams who might be looking to come up: L.A. Rams (19), Pittsburgh (20), Miami (21), Dallas (24), Green Bay (25), Baltimore (30), San Francisco (31), Kansas City (32).

Deal Day 3 picks?

This is expected to be one of the weaker Day 3s in recent history.

As Jim Nagy, the former Seahawks personnel assistant who runs the Senior Bowl, explained it: “Nobody’s talking about it because few truly track later-round prospects, but the combination of NIL money, widespread use of the extra Covid year and the smallest junior class in over a decade completely wiped out the depth of this year’s NFL draft. … Teams will either be trading away Day 3 picks to preserve value or selecting players from their free-agent side board in April.”

Schneider has two fourth-rounders, including the second pick on Day 3. He could use that 102^nd overall pick to move from 81 up to 59 or 60. Or he could package one of his two sixths with 102 and get into the bottom of the third round.

He also could dip into his 2025 stock, which is expected to include an extra fourth and fifth.

Trade down for a versatile defender?

The Hawks have been doing their diligence on guys they could draft in the early 20s. They have met with Penn State pass rusher Chop Robinson, Duke center Graham Barton, Iowa defensive back Cooper DeJean and Illinois defensive lineman Johnny Newton. Those four guys are 21, 22, 24 and  25 on Jeremiah’s top 150 and in the 22-26 range on the consensus big board.

Albert Breer reports that the Hawks and Ravens are both high on DeJean, a versatile defensive back who likely would play safety for Seattle.

“If you want to match players to schemes,” Breer wrote, “I’d say it’s worth keeping an eye on Iowa’s Cooper DeJean with teams that run a Ravens-like defense. He’s the sort of chess piece that those teams like to have on the back end, and teams such as the Seahawks at 16 and the Ravens at 30 have him on their radars.”

That jibes with what Teasley said about Mike MacDonald’s desire for player flexibility.

“We feel like we have versatility throughout our roster,” Teasley said. “You talk about the back end with Julian Love and now Rayshawn Jenkins, we’re truly nuanced at that safety position.”

Versatile safeties are what Macdonald likes. With no safeties signed past next year, DeJean could be the future there.

Will Fautanu fall?

Washington QB Michael Penix’s health concerns have been well noted, but teammate Troy Fautanu, often mocked to Seattle, has a knee issue “that shouldn’t be a problem in the short term but could wind up impacting his longevity in the pros,” Breer reported. The Hawks’ offensive staff obviously knows everything there is to know about Fautanu and has decided where he sits on their board. If this news drops him into the 20s, that would match up pretty well with a trade down.

Another guy the Hawks reportedly have talked to is UCLA pass rusher Laiatu Latu, who is Jeremiah’s No. 16 prospect and 13^th on the consensus big board. But Latu also has a medical red flag due to a neck condition that led UW to force him to quit playing, which led to him transferring to UCLA. Breer reported, “Latu’s neck condition is going to be a disqualifier for some, but not all, teams.” If Latu slides and the Hawks move back a bit, he could very well be their choice.