John Schneider could have afforded a top free-agent guard, but it’s a position he thinks is overpaid – and now he absolutely has to draft a guy who is capable of pushing for a starting spot as a rookie.

Seemingly 90% of mock drafts have him doing exactly that with the 16^th pick, taking Washington star Troy Fautanu. Mike Macdonald wants to be “a physical football team” and Fautanu certainly would help that happen.

But Schneider also thinks guards “get overdrafted,” and he recently signed former Jets starter Laken Tomlinson. So, unless Macdonald and Ryan Grubb (Fautanu’s OC at UW) really want Schneider to take Fautanu – and the lineman is there at 16 – it sure looks like Schneider will be angling to grab a guard later in the draft.

Before signing Tomlinson, Schneider told Seattle Sports 710, “We hope to address things in the draft as much as we possibly can. We’re not playing games tomorrow, so we’ll continue to work our way through post draft, trades, summer, all that stuff. It’s not an area that’s being ignored.”

Schneider’s actions speak as loud as his words on devaluing guards. He has drafted 12, and the only first-rounders were actually tackles (James Carpenter and Germain Ifedi) who moved to guard for at least part of their time in Seattle. The GM otherwise has used three third-round picks, four fourths and three sevenths on guards.

Just two have panned out as full-time starters: J.R. Sweezy, who was a fluky seventh-round D-line convert, and Damien Lewis, a third-rounder whom Schneider let go to Carolina this year because he didn’t want to pay him $13.25 million a year.

Now, it is possible that he views Fautanu’s value the same way he saw Carpenter’s or Ifedi’s because Fautanu played left tackle at Washington.

But, if Fautanu is gone or Seattle just doesn’t want to draft a guard that high, what can Schneider do in this draft to address that position?

At the moment, he has seven picks, starting with No. 16 overall and including just one (No. 81 overall) on Day 2. His standard move would be to trade down to add more Day 2 picks, even though moving down has not been very fruitful for him.

Schneider seems to be prepping for this kind of move, meeting with several guys ranked in the 20s on the consensus big board: Illinois DL Johnny Newton, Iowa DB Cooper DeJean, Duke OL Graham Barton and Penn State pass rusher Chop Robinson.

To add a second-round pick, Schneider would need to drop as far down as 25. The Packers have No. 41 and 58 and could give up the latter and No. 169 (fifth round), with the Hawks giving up 16 and 118 (fourth round). That’s an almost even swap on the Rich Hill trade chart we use (which goes off previous league trades).

Schneider then might take one of the above players. Or he might end up reaching for a player – as he usually does when he is that deep in the first round. Maybe he would take Washington QB Michael Penix Jr., if he were still there. Penix is 38^th on the consensus board. Or Michigan linebacker Junior Colson, who is 46^th on the board.

Assuming no guard on Day 1, when would Schneider get one? Late in Round 2, he could look at UConn’s Christian Haynes, Kansas State’s Cooper Beebe or maybe Kansas’ Dominick Puni.

According to a study by The Athletic ahead of the 2022 draft, Day 2 is where the best guards are found. Among Pro Bowl guards drafted from 2012 to 2021, 46% were found on the second day (vs. 35% in Round 1). Now, part of that might be that teams just don’t draft many guards in the first round anyway. But clearly it is possible to find quality guards after Round 1.

If Schneider does not take one on Day 2, he’ll be looking on Day 3 – like last year. And the odds of him finding a good starting guard then are not great — in fact, probably zero based on Schneider’s history.