For all of the Seahawks’ flaws, there apparently is only one NFC team they cannot beat – or at least come close to beating.
Pete Carroll surely would like another chance to face the 49ers, but the only way to do it is to make the playoffs, which will require an unlikely four-game winning streak to end the season — or else some help from other teams losing.
Everyone, especially Carroll, was giddy about Seattle’s last-minute win over the Philadelphia Eagles last Monday – a win that not only ended a four-game slide but boosted the Seahawks’ playoff hopes.
The win over an NFC team gave them a little more pull in the tiebreakers, but they still have to win their final three or get some help from teams playing Minnesota, Los Angeles and/or New Orleans.
The Rams (8-7), who beat the Saints on Thursday and have turned into a scoring juggernaut while winning five of six, are certainly the favorites to snag the second wild card. That would leave the Hawks (7-7) racing against the Vikings (7-7), with the Saints (7-8) and Packers (6-8) having outside shots at the third spot.
Winning out seems like a tall order for the Hawks, even though the remaining teams they face – Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Arizona — have a combined record of 15-27. The Hawks will be favored in all of those games, but no one should be surprised if they stumble against one of those teams due to their terrible run defense and very inconsistent offense. In fact, ESPN projects that they will lose two of the final three.
The Hawks beat the Eagles despite giving up 178 rushing yards and scuffling along on offense for most of the game. If not for Julian Love’s standout game (two picks), the offensive line rising to the occasion and Drew Lock’s last-drive heroics, that one easily could have gone the other way.
The Hawks are just finding it far too difficult to win games this season. They have won just two of their last seven games, and their last three wins have all come in the final seconds: TD passes to Jaxon Smith-Njigba against Cleveland and Philly and a last-play field goal by Jason Myers to beat Washington.
While there is hope that the secondary has found a productive mix after the strong performances of Love, Tre Brown, Michael Jackson and Artie Burns last Monday, the Hawks still cannot stop the run. After giving up just 79.2 yards per game in the first five games, the Hawks have surrendered 154 per game over the last nine.
But they held the high-scoring Eagles to 17 points, so they probably can hold down these last three, who average just 16-19 points each. None of those teams can throw the ball very well, so the Hawks could load the box against all of them to try to stuff the run.
Meanwhile, the Hawks need to run the ball well themselves over the final three games. The offensive line handled a good Philly defensive front and finally put together a solid ground game. The first drive of the second half was the Ken Walker show, and the Hawks hit 100 rushing yards — they are now 6-0 when they do that. So running the ball is more predictive of success for this team than being able to stop the run.
We’ll see whether the line can build off this game and the offense can find some consistency and score better than it has for most of the season (just three 30-point games, eight with 20 points or less).
Lock did not play poorly in his two starts, but Shane Waldron kept it pretty conservative. The deep ball was obviously there Monday night (we mentioned it at halftime), but Waldron and Lock did not really take advantage until the final drive, when Lock hit a 34-yarder to DK Metcalf and the 29-yard winner to JSN.
Geno Smith should be back from his groin issue and play QB the rest of the way. If the line plays like it did against Dallas and Philadelphia, Smith and Co. should be able to score some points.
The Hawks were in the same 7-7 spot last year and went 2-1 in the final three to finish 9-8 and make the playoffs, where they were blown out 41-23 by the 49ers.
They could make it at 9-8 again, if the Vikings slip up, too — they play the Lions twice and the Packers.
But could the Hawks do anything even if they do get to the playoffs?
Well, other than the 49ers, the NFC is a total crapshoot. The Hawks already have beaten the two teams they most likely would face in the first round, Detroit and Philadelphia. And they played Dallas right down to the wire. So it’s not impossible that they could win a playoff game.
But, as long as Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel are healthy, no one is stopping the 49ers from getting to the Super Bowl.
So a loss in the NFC title game is the absolute cap for these Seahawks. Not good enough, but the best the Hawks could do — if they can get in.