A lot of fans think he has suddenly gotten a lot better at drafting over the past four years. But that’s easy to say when he has been picking in the top 20. 

In two weeks, we will find out whether he has gotten any better when his first pick comes outside the top 20.

Over his 16 drafts as Seattle general manager, Schneider has drafted eight guys in the top 20 and made seven initial picks outside the top 20. (He has thrice traded his first-round picks for veterans.)

Of the top-20 picks, three (Devon Witherspoon, Byron Murphy II and Grey Zabel) are still on rookie deals and the five others all got big contracts – in Seattle or elsewhere.  

Of the seven drafted in the bottom of the first (or top of the second, via trade-downs), all but Jordyn Brooks underperformed their draft slots.

So there is a clear and obvious pattern for Schneider. He is better when the choices are more obvious. When he has been outside the first 20, he has not done as well.

Some think that was more Pete Carroll’s influence, but Schneider said in 2024 – his first year in complete control of the Seahawks – that Carroll “rarely, rarely, rarely” used his authority to override Schneider in the draft. Others have confirmed that Schneider has always run the draft for Seattle.

The GM recently reiterated that he made a mistake when he let Seattle’s draft board get too big (2013-17) as he focused too much on filling holes instead of taking players who best fit Seattle. But that would not really explain the big reaches for Rashaad Penny in 2018 and L.J. Collier in 2019.

So Schneider definitely has to prove it this year.

Trading down has not helped

When he has been in the 20s and 30s, Schneider typically has looked to trade down. He moved off his top pick in every year from 2012 to 2019. Two of those deals were for players; six were moves down.

As he said in 2024, “If you are in the late 20s, you are really picking in the second round anyway, so why not acquire another pick?”  

But those extra picks have helped Seattle only about 28% of the time. Schneider has netted 25 players in those trades, and just seven have turned into contributors.

The top picks in those trade-downs were Bruce Irvin (15), Paul Richardson (45), Germain Ifedi (31), Malik McDowell (35), Penny (27) and Marquise Blair (47). Irvin (picked in the top 20) was the best of those guys, and the latter three were complete busts.

That’s why Schneider has been smart to stick and pick the past two years, taking Byron Murphy II at 16 in 2024 and Grey Zabel at 18 in 2025. He had offers to move off both spots, but he chose to stay in the top 20 and get guys everyone considered sure things.

As he also said before that 2024 draft: “How far back are you gonna go? Where’s your cutoff? Because you get into the third round pretty quick, too. You might only have 15-18 guys in the second round.”

That seems to be the case again this year, in what is considered a not very strong draft. As NFL reporter Jordan Schultz posted, “Because this specific draft lacks depth in the later rounds, many teams plan to pursue extra Day 2 and early Day 3 picks, per league sources.”  

At 32, with only four picks in total right now, you can bet Schneider will try to go back to his move strategy. And, if he can deal down, you have to hope he does better.

Round 2 is better

Schneider actually has done very well in the second round overall, hitting on 11 of 19 picks.

Most of the eight misses were forced picks (McDowell, Darrell Taylor on a trade up) or big reaches (Christine Michael, Richardson, Blair).

Schneider has done pretty well at the bottom of the round, where he has found Golden Tate (60), Justin Britt (a reach at 64 who worked out), Frank Clark (63) and DK Metcalf (64).

Since 2022, Schneider has made some good moves in the second round. The picks:

• Boye Mafe 40^th in 2022
• Kenneth Walker III 41^st in 2022
• Derick Hall 37^th in 2023
• Zach Charbonnet 52^nd in 2023
• Nick Emmanwori 35^th in 2025
• Elijah Arroyo 50^th in 2025

The jury is still out on Arroyo, but the rest have been solid choices (Mafe and Walker just earned big contracts from other teams).

What about this Round 2?

While a lot of people expect Schneider to take a cornerback with his top pick in this draft (the Seahawks have been checking out all of the top guys and are constantly given a corner in mock drafts), this draft also could be like 2022 and 2023, when he added a tailback and pass rusher in Round 2.

If he can trade down from 32, maybe he takes Notre Dame running back Jadarian Price with the top pick and then a pass rusher (Michigan’s Derrick Moore or Penn State’s Dani Dennis-Sutton?) at 64.

Probably more likely is he trades down and takes a corner (SDSU’s Chris Johnson?) first. He might try to move off 64 as well, unless Price slides that deep (unlikely) or Schneider likes Moore, Dennis-Sutton or another player at that spot (maybe Arkansas RB Mike Washington Jr. or an offensive lineman).

We’re just a couple weeks away now, and it will be interesting to see what Schneider does now that he is back at the bottom of the draft again.

This is his chance to show he has figured out how to draft when he is outside the top 20.