With the Seahawks expected to lose as many as five top free agents, we said earlier this week that it looked like John Schneider seemed prepared to play the comp game.
Fans have started dreaming about having a basket of third-round picks in 2027, while others (us included) point out that Schneider has never done well with comp picks.
Let’s take a look at what the comp options might be and then how Schneider has used them in the past and how he might be able to use them this year (despite not getting them until next year).
Some fans are getting a little carried away, thinking the Seahawks are going to get four third-round comp picks in 2027. That’s very unrealistic.
To qualify for a third-rounder, a comp free agent must rank in the top 5% of the formula, which factors in the APY ranking across the entire league, playing time and All-Pro honors.
The standard third-round APY in recent years has been $20 million. But some guys making less have netted a third for their former teams because they were named All-Pros (e.g., Xavier McKinney after signing for $17 million with Green Bay in 2024).
So the question for fans hoping for third-round picks for Riq Woolen, Kenneth Walker III, Rashid Shaheed and/or Boye Mafe is this: Will any of these guys get $20 million a year and/or be named All-Pros?
You probably can scratch Walker and Mafe from the APY part. Walker’s best offer figures to be around $16 million. Mafe figures to get somewhere between $12 million and $15 million.
Woolen is expected to find a deal worth around $18 million, and maybe he hits $20 million. Shaheed’s upper range has gone from $15 million to now perhaps $20 million.
All four seem likely to merit fourth-rounders, but thirds would require some excessive contracts.
The last time the Seahawks got a 3 was for Earl Thomas in 2020. He got a deal worth $13.75 million a year from Baltimore. They ended up using that to trade up for Darrell Taylor in the second round.
That was actually Schneider’s best use of a third-round comp pick. He whiffed in 2016 and 2017, when he used thirds on Rees Odhiambo, Nazair Jones and Amara Darboh. All were really bad busts and part of the reason Seattle went into a roster funk that lasted until Schneider traded Russell Wilson in 2022.
Let’s say Woolen, Walker, Shaheed and Mafe all qualify for fourths and Coby Bryant also leaves and nets a fifth. Figure Schneider will sign a free-agent running back (Tyler Allgeier?) and maybe one other comp free agent, leaving him with three projected fourths in 2027.
Knowing he had extra ammo in 2027 would enable him to feel comfortable moving some of his natural picks from that draft this year – if the occasion arose. In a way, Rasheed – by accounting for one of those comp fourths — would help make up for the fourth and fifth he cost Seattle last season.
Free agency scuttlebutt
The Hawks did exactly what we expected with Drake Thomas, eschewing an RFA tender for a two-year deal worth $4 million a year. This is a credit to Thomas for working hard and to Mike Macdonald’s staff for helping him become an impact player on this top-ranked Super Bowl defense. He and Ernest Jones IV will play together for the next two years on the inside.
If DeMarcus Lawrence retires, one guy some people are talking up as a veteran replacement is Khalil Mack. We’re not really on board with signing the 35-year-old former superstar. He apparently was still an effective player last season for the Chargers, but the Hawks do not need to be signing aging guns for hire.
Seattle reportedly (via James Palmer) checked in on D.J. Moore before the Bears traded him to Buffalo. Shaheed and Moore share Drew Rosenhaus as an agent (h/t to Curtis Allen for that) and Seattle probably learned in negotiating about Shaheed that Moore was a trade option.
Schneider mocked the report that Shaheed is going to hit free agency, joking that “he’s apparently gone already” and that it is not news that Shaheed has been exploring his options. But he said nothing to debunk the idea that Shaheed will indeed hit the market Monday.
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