The Seahawks have scuffled along on offense for most of their six-game winning streak, scoring just two first-half touchdowns and ranking 29th in EPA per play.
In their 27-10 win at Carolina last Sunday, it was more of the same — another slow start followed by a second-half surge sparked by defense (in some games, it has been special teams).
A lot of people are continually putting the blame for the offensive struggles on Sam Darnold — partially because he continues to turn the ball over a couple times a game (he had a fumble and interception vs. Carolina).
But most of the blame belongs where we always thought it would: on the offensive line. And Klint Kubiak has not done enough — either with his opening play scripts or his other play calls — to help Darnold.
Between the line busting blocks and all of the free rushers Carolina had, Darnold was under pressure for most of the game Sunday (Carolina blitzed 55% of the time). It was not his fault that Abe Lucas could not block Nic Scourton on the sack-fumble.
It was not his fault that Kubiak did not scheme a better protection or use more misdirection (which has largely disappeared over the past six games).
Early in the season, teams were stacking the box and daring Darnold to throw. He and Jaxon Smith-Njigba made them pay time after time. JSN was on a record yardage pace and Darnold was leading the NFL in yards per pass. It was a very efficient deep-ball offense — even if it was one-dimensional.
In their 7-2 start, they ranked 10th in overall offensive EPA. They were best in the league in the first half. Since then, they have fallen to 21st overall and 28th in the first half.
Kubiak has been pretty conservative all year in his play calls — the Hawks are top five in rushes per game (29) and lead the NFL in percentage of run plays called (48%).
Teams have started rolling coverage toward JSN, which has opened up the running game a bit. The Hawks ran for 171 yards vs. the Rams and 163 vs. the Panthers.
Per Field Gulls, JSN caught 12 of 16 explosive passes (20+ air yards) through the first nine games, but he has caught just 4 of 9 since Week 11.
The lack of big plays, combined with far too many turnovers, has hurt their ability to sustain drives. Per Field Gulls, in Weeks 1-11, the Seahawks scored touchdowns on about 25% of possessions that began inside their own 30. Since Week 12, that percentage has dropped to 10%.
Kubiak needs to stay with play action; the Hawks are first in dropback EPA when using PA, but they are 23rd without it. Per Field Gulls, 10 of Darnold’s 14 interceptions have come on non-PA plays.
With this subpar line, they need to use it regularly to keep pressure off Darnold and have any chance at throwing success.
The next test of getting out of this funk comes in the huge game against the 49ers for the No. 1 seed, bye and home field.
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