Bears, Rams, Hawks lead frantic NFC race for top seed

“We’re in the death zone now. The NFC’s jumping, it’s popping, there’s great teams all around. You’ve got to win these games.” — Ernest Jones IV

The Seahawks’ defense was not happy that it did not hold down the lowly Titans properly in Seattle’s Week 12 win at Tennessee. Well, DeMarcus Lawrence, Ernest Jones IV and the rest more than made up for it in Week 13, leading a 26-0 shutout of Minnesota.

That helped the Seahawks catch the Rams, who lost 31-28 to surging Carolina (6-3 in the last nine) on Sunday. The Hawks, Rams and 49ers (who beat Cleveland) all have nine wins – matching the current top seed, Chicago, which beat Philadelphia on Friday and has lost just once since an 0-2 start.

The Packers and Eagles have eight wins, so the race for the NFC’s top seed is going to be fast and furious over the final five weeks.

The Packers, Seahawks and Bears have the toughest slates in those final five. Green Bay’s remaining strength of schedule is a whopping .633, Seattle’s is .597 and Chicago’s is .590. The Packers and Bears might knock each other out of that No. 1 race as they face each other twice.

In the unlikely event that the Bears somehow sweep Green Bay and also beat Cleveland, San Francisco and Detroit, they would retain the top seed. But there are four very tough games in there. So the Hawks have a good shot at controlling their destiny.

The Hawks and Rams face off in their own showdown in Week 16. And the Hawks finish with the 49ers.

The Rams have it a lot easier than either of their NFC West foes, with a .433 strength of schedule that includes two games vs. Arizona and one vs. Atlanta.

The 49ers – despite all of their key injuries this season – still have a sneaky shot at the top seed. They finally have a bye this week, then face the one-win Titans before finishing with a tough trio — the Colts, Bears and Hawks.

That season finale between the 49ers and Seahawks could determine the No. 1 seed. (Or it could determine who plays at Carolina/Tampa instead of in the colder climes of Green Bay, Chicago and/or Philadelphia.)

The Hawks have a tough final four; after they play the Falcons next week, they face the Colts, Rams, Panthers and 49ers. If the Hawks cannot run the table, they will be out of the top seed conversation.

Seattle’s defense (No. 3 in scoring, No. 5 by EPA) clearly is capable of sweeping the final five, but the offense has to do its part. Sam Darnold and Co. had to settle for field goals four times vs. the Vikings, just as they did vs. the Rams.

In the final five games, the Hawks face three top-10 scoring defenses: the Rams (#2), the 49ers (#8) and the Colts (#9). They averaged 20 points in their three earlier games vs. top-10 defenses (49ers, Rams, Texans). They also scored just 19 vs. the Vikings’ blitzing defense (Jones scored the other TD on an 85-yard interception return).

Bottom line: The Seahawks will need to learn how to do better than 20 points/four field goals the rest of the way.

The one saving grace could be the running game, which has come alive over the past four games (142-yard average). They ran for 125 vs. the Vikings, which was largely what powered their scoring. They had 135 vs. the Rams, which would have been enough if Darnold had not thrown four interceptions in that 21-19 loss.

One key stat that is reflective of a team’s Super Bowl chances is point differential. All three Seattle Super Bowl squads (2005, 2013, 2014) ranked second in that stat. These Hawks rank first (+133) after the 26-0 win vs. Minnesota. The Rams are right behind at +124. No other NFC team is close to those two.

It still seems like this is going to come down to the Rams and Seahawks playing one more time to determine the NFC’s best.  

What the Seahawks said

“Front line to linebackers to the DBs, they played a great game. They led us, and we’re super happy to have the best defense in the world. It’s awesome.” — Jaxon Smith-Njigba after the Seattle defense forced five turnovers, tallied four sacks and held the Vikings and rookie QB Max Brosmer to 162 yards.

“It’s unbelievable to have a defense like this, just consistently. For us, as an offense especially, for me personally, I hate putting them in positions to where I’m getting a sack-fumble and the defense is recovering it and all of a sudden they’re in the red zone and our defense is able to turn that somehow into six points. To be able to play with and for a defense like that is unbelievable. Don’t take it for granted one day.” — Sam Darnold, who had a rough day behind an offensive line that was completely fooled for much of the game by Vikings DC Brian Flores’ blitz-based scheme.

“We need to start faster, especially in terms of protection and making sure we’re on the same page. On paper it’s nice to say we have it protected, but when they’re doing it full speed we’ve got to be ahead of plays faster on offense.” — Mike Macdonald, after Darnold was sacked four times in the first half.

“The blocked passes are tough. You don’t want to put the ball in jeopardy, but also trying to get rid of it on time. So we’ll look at that. Thought he made some smart decisions, fast decisions. Got away from the rush well. I know it sounds weird, but he took some good sacks actually in some of those critical moments, which is good team football. Did a great job. There is a lot of things he’s doing outside of the pass game in that second half that really helped us win the game as well, so operating at a high level.” — Macdonald on Darnold getting balls batted at the line and taking sacks rather than throwing interceptions.

“DeMarcus Lawrence’s caused fumble is probably my new favorite play of all time. Just an incredible, incredible play. I just saw a blur coming down and just violently attack the ball. It’s been such a point of emphasis, and to see him do that was really great.” — Macdonald on the play where Lawrence recovered after being blocked out of the action and chased down the running back from 10 yards behind to force a fumble.

“(Jones is) one of the best leaders I’ve ever been around. And to be able to go through all the adversity, the traumas, but continue to hold fast and hold strong and overcome, and be the same Ernest, regardless of the circumstance that have been imposed on him, regardless of the things happening in his life, just being able to hold his bearing and be there for the guys over and over and over again, it’s an impressive thing. I love Ern, and he knows everyone on this team’s got his back. It’s just awesome to see him out there making plays and doing what he’s doing.” — Cooper Kupp on Jones, who had 12 tackles and two interceptions (including the one he ran back 85 yards for a TD) in his return from a knee injury.

“Yes (this is the best defense I have played on). I mean that wholeheartedly, but I feel it’s another level that we can reach. You all haven’t seen the best of us, and we’re going to capitalize on our opportunities.” — Lawrence.

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