Already supporting Darnold well, defense should get even better

As the Seahawk face the NFL’s best defense on Monday, it is worth noting that Sam Darnold doesn’t have to do it all alone.

Mike Sando of The Athletic does a fun project called the Betrayal Index, which ranks quarterbacks by how much they have to carry their teams (i.e., how good they are vs. where their defenses and special teams rank in EPA).

Darnold is among the top 10 passers in that metric (as he is in pretty much every metric), but he is just one of four QBs who are complemented by top-10 defense/special teams combinations.

And his defense is about to start getting even better.

The Seahawks are not quite as stout as the Houston Texans, who are the No. 1 defense in scoring (12.2 ppg), third in DVOA and third in EPA (add it all up and they are the best). But the Hawks are not far behind, an aggregate sixth when combining ppg (sixth), DVOA (fourth) and EPA (11th).

And they have not even had their full complement of defenders yet – they have been down at least three key defenders in half of their games. With any luck, they will get back Devon Witherspoon (knee) and Julian Love (hamstring), who have been absent for at least half the season so far.

With them largely absent over the last four weeks, the secondary has run through a lot of iterations. Nick Emmanwori missed three games himself, and Riq Woolen was out with a concussion in Week 6.

Shaq Griffin and Josh Jobe held down the corners against Jacksonville. After a rocky start – mostly by Griffin – they settled down and played well. It helped that the Seahawks were all over Trevor Lawrence the entire game (seven sacks, 27 pressures in 50 dropbacks).

Other than the Week 5 loss to Tampa, when the Hawks got no pressure on Baker Mayfield, the defense has been well anchored by Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy II and Jarran Reed (and Ernest Jones IV in the run game). Murphy leads the team with 4.5 sacks and Williams has three. Those two also lead the team with a combined 25 pressures – they have easily been the best defenders.

On top of that, that D-line trio is doing a surprisingly stellar job against the run (with the help of Jones, of course). The Hawks are giving up just 79 yards per game (third in the league before Week 7) and 3.3 per carry (tied for the league lead with Cleveland).

The edge rushers have been in and out — and up and down. Uchenna Nwosu, DeMarcus Lawrence and Derick Hall have all missed time (Hall remains out with an oblique injury). Nwosu and D-Law have been their best pass rushers. Nwosu is second on the team with four sacks, and Lawrence has two. They also each have 10 pressures and a combined 13 QB hits and six tackles for loss.

Boye Mafe has played 61.5% of snaps – far more than the three other edge guys – and he really has not offered as much as expected: no sacks, two QB hits, one TFL and nine pressures. He also has the fewest tackles of the quartet. That all makes him perhaps the most disappointing defensive player on the team, considering he was a second-round pick in 2022 and is in a contract year.

That said, this sixth-ranked defense is ascending. Mike Macdonald made great adjustments after the Tampa debacle, proving once again that he never tolerates middling performance and always has the fix at hand.

It could get better, too, if John Schneider gets in on the trade action.

Chatter is picking up again about moving Woolen. Macdonald seemingly waved it off this week, but he also might have been stirring up interest when he said, “The guy is kicking butt for us.”

Macdonald showed that he can win without Woolen (and Spoon and Love) when he coached up the second-team secondary last week. Griffin, after a tough start, and Emmanwori played well in place of Woolen and Spoon.

The Hawks could use some D-line depth – if they lose one of their top three for any time, it would affect the whole unit. As we recently wrote, Keion White would seem to be a great addition. So maybe Woolen for White?

Whether Schneider makes a bold move or not, the Hawks should get better as they get more guys back (and we have not even mentioned Johnathan Hankins and rookie Rylie Mills, who could return from injured lists at some point).

So far, the Hawks have played two top-10 offenses and four middling or worse units. They have given up 30 points just once, to Mayfield and the Bucs as they played without Spoon, Love and Lawrence. The rest of their opponents have averaged 15.8 points.

Looking ahead, they face just three dynamic offenses – the Colts, Commanders and Rams – and a bunch of middling units. If the Hawks keep getting the same high-caliber play from Darnold, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the special teams (No. 1 in the NFL), and their defense doesn’t get any more beat up than it has been, they should not lose more than three games the rest of the way.

The defense should be able to handle the Texans’ 20th-ranked scoring offense Monday night to help Darnold, JSN and company as they face the league’s No. 1 defense.

That would take the Hawks to 5-2 entering their Week 8 bye, with very winnable games at  Washington and vs. Arizona up next before a big clash with the Rams in Week 11.

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