The biggest question in the wake of the Seahawks’ highly praised draft is not whether Grey Zabel will become a standout guard or whether Nick Emmanwori will help the defense become elite.
Zabel and Emmanwori were stellar picks who almost everyone expects to become big contributors as rookies.
There certainly are other questions (from us, at least) about this class: Will Elijah Arroyo be able to unlock his physical skills in the NFL? Will Tory Horton also stay healthy and not become a later-round Paul Richardson? Will Rylie Mills (ACL) become what Aden Durde thinks he will?
All valid questions. But the very biggest is this: Will Jalen Milroe develop into Mike Macdonald’s version of Lamar Jackson? If so, how long might it take for that to happen?
For the record, Macdonald made no promises, other than to say, “He’s going to be trained to play quarterback for us. When he’s in there, he’s going to be playing quarterback. But the athleticism is going to come to life when he’s on the field.”
Let’s look at where he stands as a quarterback right now, how far he needs to go and what the odds of success and possible timeline look like.
Experts explain Milroe
PFF revealed some stats on Milroe that are not flattering: “It’s probably no surprise to anyone who has watched Milroe throw the football that accuracy is a major issue. He ranks last in both on-frame accuracy and uncatchable inaccurate rate in this draft class—and not by a small margin. On throws between 5 and 25 yards downfield, his 48% accuracy rate is 5.5 percentage points worse than the next-lowest quarterback, while his 33.1% uncatchable rate is 3.8 percentage points worse than the next-closest passer. Across all levels of the field, his accuracy rate is 8.7 percentage points lower than the ninth-ranked quarterback.”
A number of NFL evaluators dittoed the inaccuracy problems but also pointed out Milroe’s one obvious strength.
An AFC coordinator told NFL Media’s Tom Pelissero: “He has a lot of accuracy issues. But he’s a freak. He’s the best running quarterback I’ve ever evaluated. He’s like Cam Newton’s power with Lamar (Jackson’s) speed. … He’s a true developmental-type player. He’s electric.”
An AFC executive opined: “This is the fastest guy on the goddamn field. He was outrunning angles. He’s just so erratic. He’s a smart enough kid, but not a fast processor. … Has to see it open. Doesn’t have anticipation. He’s the typical big, rifle-armed (passer) who throws everything hard and fast and will throw a good pass and then the next five, you don’t know where they’re going to end up.”
Another AFC coordinator said: “He’s got a fastball that’s not very accurate. He doesn’t know when to take it off the ball. We heard out of Alabama all the skill (players) would’ve transferred if he came back. He wants to be known as a pocket quarterback and your best skill is you’re frickin’ fast.”
What’s the learning curve?
The best way to try to project Milroe is to find similar quarterbacks and see how they have developed — while understanding that only 16% of quarterbacks drafted on Day 2 typically rise to star status.
The most common comparison for Milroe is Lamar Jackson. Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen and Justin Fields are other running QBs Milroe has been compared to. All of those guys were higher draft picks because they were superior passers to Milroe in college.
A study by SIS looked at intermediate throws (11-20 yards) in college as a solid correlation to development in the pros: “Short and especially intermediate accuracy share a strong correlation to QB performance and therefore being more accurate on intermediate throws could be a little more valuable when evaluating prospects than at other depths.”
On intermediate throws at Alabama, Milroe – at 56% — was the worst of the top 11 QBs in the 2025 draft. He also was far below the college numbers of Hurts (77% at Alabama), Jackson (73% at Louisville), Allen (70% at Wyoming) and Fields (68% at Ohio State).
Ten of Milroe’s 11 interceptions in 2024 were on throws traveling 15 yards or less, obviously a big reflection of the accuracy problems. An NFC executive told ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler that Milroe “has trouble going through his progressions.”
PFF: “If there’s a silver lining, it’s that Milroe’s overall accuracy numbers are similar to Lamar Jackson’s final season in college. … However, the key difference is that Jackson was far more electric and efficient as a runner. While Milroe must improve his accuracy, he’ll also need to rely on his athleticism to buy time for his development in the NFL. The good news is that his throwing mechanics have some fixable issues, meaning there’s a path to improving his accuracy to an acceptable level.”
The plan and future
The Seahawks surely would like to develop Milroe in the same way Baltimore built up Jackson. He has averaged 900 rushing yards per season since he took over as Baltimore’s full-time starter in 2019. He has completed 65.4%, with a 6.6% TD rate and a 1.9% INT rate – all better than his college numbers (57%, 6.4%, 2.5%). He has been coached well in Baltimore.
Fields – the 11th overall pick by Chicago in 2021 — might be a better comparison. Fields had an 80% short completion rate and just 68% medium-range rate in college. His numbers actually have regressed in the NFL, down to 77% short and 60% intermediate.
That doesn’t bode very well for Milroe either, because Seattle’s new QB coach, Andrew Janocko, was the one coaching Fields in Chicago in 2022-23. Fields made marginal improvement as a passer, lowering his INT rate and slightly improving his overall completion numbers over those two years. But the Bears really just relied on his running ability – Fields ran for 1,143 yards in 2022 and 657 more the next year.
Maybe most of that fell on the offensive coordinator, Luke Getsy, and perhaps Seattle OC Klint Kubiak can be the X factor for Milroe.
Some NFL people see more Jackson and Hurts in Milroe than they see Fields.
An NFC assistant coach told Pelissero: “From a playmaking standpoint, he is as good as anybody. That dude’s impressive and he can make big plays and take off and run. But the consistent accuracy is the biggest part with him. He’s probably got as much upside, if not more, than anybody in this draft. It’s just: Can you hone that?
“If you run your offense like they did early for Lamar — it’s using those physical traits as that pass game evolves — then you’ve got something really special. If you try to say, ‘Hey, we’re going to make him into a pocket passer Year 1,’ it might be tough.”
An AFC quarterbacks coach said: “It’s Hurts. It’s Lamar. It’s Colin Kaepernick. There are some guys that have successfully done it, and if you want to baby him into the league that way and then let him flourish, who knows?”
An NFC coordinator said: “You’ve gotta have a clear, clear vision of how you’re going to move forward with this guy. He’s one of the best athletes on the field. I just don’t know how much better the accuracy is going to get.
“It’s not like a Josh Allen or a Lamar Jackson coming out, where there were some accuracy issues, but they were still natural, whip throwers. (Milroe) just isn’t a real natural thrower. Those guys just needed to clean up their base and fundamentals. I just don’t see the accuracy getting that much better. I don’t think it’ll be at a level where you feel great about him dropping back and throwing the ball.”
An AFC scouting director disagreed on the passing potential: “He can develop the throwing part. But for right now, get creative with him and have some packages. He’s as dynamic as I’ve seen running the ball.”
Daniel Jeremiah told 710 AM Seattle Sports Radio that Milroe might start 2-3 games as a rookie.
“The hope is that breeds a little confidence and you go into Year 2 and see how competitive he can be for that job,” DJ said. “That’s the beginning liftoff for that whole thing. I feel like you will see him for a game or two and … he’s going to get people excited because of how he’s going to run around and make some plays doing that stuff.”
Fortunately, Milroe is just a flier pick for the Seahawks, who have bet big money that Sam Darnold will build on his breakout 2024 season and be Seattle’s lead passer for 2025 and beyond. In that case, it would not be a problem if Milroe remained only a dynamic runner as the No. 2 quarterback.
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I put the chances of Milroe realizing his potential at less than 50%. At the same time, the chances of anyone drafted #92 overall becoming much more than a useful role player are well south of 50%. I.e., there wasn’t much of an opportunity cost to taking a flyer on Milroe, so why not take a shot?
#92 overall, 2020-2024: Devin Duvernay (WR), Monty Rice (LB), Sean Rhyan (OL), Wanya Morrison (OL), Jalen McMillan (WR)
Not exactly world beaters!
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