Mike Macdonald has been saying the Seahawks are in playoff mode since their Week 10 bye. The attitude, embodied by a suddenly dominant defense, has led to four straight wins.
The latest was a big division victory over Arizona that enabled the Hawks to stay in charge of their destiny.
Their next task is to prove they are among the top four teams in the NFC by beating Green Bay in prime time Sunday. The Packers’ only losses are to Detroit (twice), Philadelphia and Minnesota – who are a combined 34-5.
If the Hawks can beat the Pack, next up is Minnesota. If the Hawks can win both of those games, they would all but lock up a playoff spot – with a wild card being viable.
It will all come down to how the offense performs. While the defense has turned into arguably the best unit in the NFL since Week 9, the offense has yet to find a rhythm as we head into Week 15.
In the four-game winning streak, the offense has put up 20 points per game and scored TDs about a quarter of the time (8 of 35 drives). The defense has scored twice and also set up two touchdowns with interceptions against Arizona.
The Hawks are just 14th in points per play over the past three games; Green Bay is No. 1 and Minnesota No. 4. So Ryan Grubb’s crew needs to step it up and take some pressure off the defense to be so dominant.
It won’t be easy though. Geno Smith and company are about to face two top-10 defenses – Green Bay is ninth in scoring, eighth in EPA; Minnesota is sixth in scoring, third in EPA.
Seattle is fresh off its best rushing performance of the season, offering hope that Grubb’s unit has found the missing ingredient and might now be able to strike teams with a double blade.
That idea will be tested the next two weeks. Green Bay is No. 9 in rushing defense (yards and EPA), and Minnesota is tops in the league in EPA, second in yards (87.2).
The Seahawks have arguably the NFL’s best defense at this point – in fact, No. 1 in EPA since Week 10. The Chargers are the top scoring defense in the NFL, at 15.9 ppg. But since Week 9, when the Hawks turned their defense around, they have given up just 14.8 ppg.
If they can stuff Josh Jacobs and the Packers’ run game, they should have a decent shot at beating Green Bay.
Playoff picture
A lot of fans are looking ahead to the Seahawks-Rams finale as a de facto playoff game. But there is a chance that game means nothing in the end.
The Seahawks need to win at least one of these big games against NFC North powers, because they still can get knocked out if they lose to both Green Bay and Minnesota. If, for example, they beat the Rams to finish in a tie at 10-7, the Rams would win the NFC West on strength of victory – unless Atlanta or Washington were involved in a three-way tie to give the division to Seattle.
Meanwhile, the Hawks can get in as a wild card if they sweep the NFC North trio (including Chicago in Week 17) and Washington splits its final four or Green Bay loses to Minnesota in Week 17 or another team (and thus loses a head-to-head wild-card tiebreaker with Seattle at 11-6).
Buckle up, because it is going to be a fun ride to the finish.
As Macdonald said on KIRO FM radio: “We’ve got a heck of a month ahead of us, and we’re trying to earn ourselves a spot in the playoffs and ultimately trying to clinch our division. So that’s what our focus is on. And winning this game would put us in a great spot.”
Looks like Walker will be out on Sunday; hopefully, Charbonnet and the OL can hold their own against the Pack’s run defense. But the Seattle offense will likely go as far as Geno can take them: Green Bay doesn’t have much of a pass rush and their secondary is banged up.
Re the defense, the Packer OL excels at pass blocking while providing middle-of-the-pack run blocking. That being said, Josh Jacobs is the best RB the Hawks have faced this season and he had a career game in Seattle just two years ago.
This is the biggest start of Geno’s career. Sunday, we’ll not only find out how good the Hawks are, we’ll find out whether Geno can step up for four quarters of a key game.
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