When Mike Macdonald hired Ryan Grubb to be his offensive coordinator back in February, we looked back through modern NFL history to find success stories from guys who had made the jump from college coordinator to NFL play caller. There were few to find.
In fact, a notable failure involved another former Husky, Steve Sarkisian, who joined Dan Quinn in Atlanta and promptly took that once vaunted offense backward.
Grubb’s success or failure will come down to whether he can maximize his players. The biggest challenge for most play callers – certainly for Seattle’s last few – has been adjusting within games to what defenses are stopping. Grubb and company faced an NFL-style defense – one put together by Macdonald, in fact – in the title game against Michigan, and they had major trouble against it. Grubb will need to show he can adjust when his script fails. … It won’t be a shock if Grubb ultimately doesn’t have the answers.”
Well, Grubb has not proven to have the answers in his rookie season. And, if his unit continues to fail, it would not be a surprise if Macdonald followed Pete Carroll’s path and fired his OC after his first year as Seattle’s coach.
Macdonald has turned around his defense, making it one of the best in the NFL over the past month. The unit led by Leonard Williams, Devon Witherspoon and Julian Love has become more and more dominant over the past four games and has keyed a three-game winning streak against San Francisco, Arizona and the Jets. Seattle has allowed just 12.5 points per game in regulation over the last four contests.
The Seahawks will look to beat Arizona for the second time in three weeks and take a firm hold of the NFC West with a fourth straight win Sunday.
The question is whether Grubb’s squad will be any help. It certainly has not been recently. In fact, the unit is regressing.
In the first seven games, the Hawks averaged 25.7 ppg – that was on the strength of some great play by Geno Smith even as he worked behind a weak offensive line.
In the last five games, though, the Hawks have scored 18.4 ppg – make it 15.8 if you remove two pick-sixes by the defense. That is a 10-point drop in scoring average that would have doomed the team if the defense had not suddenly become one of the most dominant in the league.
Since Week 7, the Hawks are last in offensive DVOA as well.
The offensive failure is not all about the defenses the Hawks have played either. Buffalo and Arizona have stout defenses, but the Hawks scored under the average point totals given up by the Rams, 49ers and Jets.
Smith was at fault vs. L.A., throwing three interceptions that cost Seattle that game. Otherwise, though, the 28th-ranked running game has been the major problem and the passing game has fizzled in key moments because Grubb is getting outcoached on a weekly basis.
Fans who support Grubb complain that he is at the mercy of a bad interior offensive line put together by John Schneider. Well, we all know the line is bad. The Hawks have had worse and still made the playoffs (remember 2016?).
Grubb’s job is to put his players in position to succeed, and he has not shown the acumen to do it. His inexperience is hurting the team. He has obvious tells in his play calling, easy for any DC to discern. It puts Smith, Ken Walker and the receivers at a further disadvantage.
While he has shown some flashes and sparks of creativity, Grubb falls into the same patterns in play calling, doesn’t do enough pre-snap shifting to help Smith recognize the defense, rarely uses misdirection to help his plays succeed and often struggles to pick the right call for the situation.
Grubb just seems in over his head in the NFL, constantly outcoached. It was a distinct possibility when he was hired, as very few college play callers in the modern era have stepped up to the NFL and been successful.
For those who do not think Macdonald would move on from Grubb after one year, keep this in mind: Macdonald was the second-to-last coach hired in the 2024 cycle. He had to scramble to assemble a staff, missing out on his purported favorite OC choice, Arthur Smith (who has Russell Wilson cooking in Pittsburgh).
With few great options remaining, Macdonald picked the OC from the best college offense over Detroit passing game coordinator Tanner Engstrand.
In college, it is easier to out-talent people. It is what UW did with a great offensive line and receivers in 2023. Grubb didn’t have to get fancy with his scheme; he just let his superior talent do all of the work. One of the criticisms of Grubb was that his UW offense had too many presets and offered little ability to adjust. We certainly have seen that with the Seahawks. Brock Huard thought Grubb would create matchups through shifts and motion, but we have not seen much of that.
NFL margins are much thinner. When the talent is equal, coaches have to scheme well. When there is a talent deficiency, coaches have to work even smarter to make up for it. Grubb has not been able to do that.
He has tried adding extra blockers on both pass and run plays, but the execution on short-yardage runs has been abysmal, and defenses have done a good job of zigging when Grubb has zagged in the passing game. If he keeps extra pass protectors in, defenses just drop more into coverage and blanket his receivers until the base rush gets to Smith. This has happened a lot in the last few games, which is why Smith ends up holding the ball forever sometimes and getting nothing despite the extra time (although he has missed a number of open reads, too).
Grubb has not adjusted to the defensive moves made against him, and that – even more than the offensive line issues — is why the offense has faded.
In these final five games (vs. Arizona, Green Bay, Minnesota, Chicago, the Rams), the Hawks face four top-11 scoring defenses. It does not set up as a positive finish to the season for Grubb’s unit.
If Grubb cannot snap his side out of it, Macdonald will have to decide whether he thinks Grubb is just making rookie mistakes that can be fixed in 2025 (through self-review and personnel upgrades) or is the next college coach who could not take the big step up.
If the Hawks make the postseason on the strength of their defense and get knocked out in the first game because the offense stinks, it would not be a surprise to see yet another first-year Seahawks coach let his offensive coordinator go.
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I don’t know what to think about Grubb. College football is a mess, and the idea of picking off top coaching talent looking to get out has merit. On the other hand, the college game looks like slow motion compared to the NFL and I wonder how well any coach can adapt.
In the end, I’d like the decision to retain or move on from Grubb to be up to Mike MacDonald. I’d be comfortable with whatever he decides.
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