The Seahawks were expected to have a top-10 offense in 2023, but here we are in Week 12 and they rank 21st overall, 19th in scoring.
They have not had an offense rank this poorly since 2011, the year before Russell Wilson arrived.
After a predictable 31-13 blowout by the 49ers on Thanksgiving night, the Hawks have lost three of four games to drop to 6-5. And they are staring at an upcoming gantlet of Dallas, San Francisco again and Philadelphia that seems very likely to drop them to 6-8.
The defense certainly has had its troubles – its soft zone with a far-too-deep safety yielding too many yards in the middle (as always) and its run defense reverting to 2022 form against Baltimore and San Francisco, which combined for over 450 rushing yards. Seattle’s defense ranks 23rd overall and 21st in points – pretty much the same station it has occupied since 2019.
But the offense has been the bigger letdown – because it is stacked with talent and was supposed to take a step up from 2022, when it finished ninth in scoring, 13th in yards.
Instead, the Hawks have gone 20 possessions without an offensive touchdown and have averaged about eight points on offense in losses to Baltimore, Los Angeles and San Francisco over the past four weeks.
“We’re not feeling it,” Pete Carroll said after the latest embarrassment. “We’re just not moving the ball steadily, and we have to find our way to do that. It’s mixing the stuff that we have and using the guys that we have better than we have so far.”
Two stats tell you all you need to know about the 6-5 Seahawks.
In their six wins, they have averaged 116 rushing yards and have a net plus-6 turnover margin. In their five losses, they have averaged 71 rushing yards and are net minus-2 in turnovers.
With Ken Walker out, their running backs got just 16 carries against the 49ers – Zach Charbonnet gained just 47 yards on 14 rushes. In their losses to the Ravens, Rams and 49ers, they have averaged a paltry 61 yards on the ground.
They have to figure out how to run the ball or they are not going to win many more games this season.
Fans are calling for the head of Shane Waldron, and they might get their wish if this keeps up. Waldron called some great games early in the season, especially as the offensive line went through a bunch of iterations. But he really has struggled to find ways to score since the Week 5 bye.
Before the bye, the Hawks averaged 27.8 ppg; in the past seven games, they have averaged just 16.9 points – and that includes Jordyn Brooks’ pick-six against the 49ers.
After the unforgivable loss to the Rams last week, Carroll called out Waldron and the entire offense: “We’ve got to make sure we’re making the right calls as we continue through the game. It seems like we’re losing our momentum on third downs for some reason (27% in the five losses), so we’ve just got to execute better and keep putting the ball in guys’ hands that can make plays for us.”
Seattle’s high mark for rushing this year is 146 yards, in a 37-27 win over Carolina. They were over that number six times last season, going 5-1 in those games. It’s a clear formula for winning – and always has been.
The 49ers (82 ypg) and Eagles (76.5) are among the top three run defenses in the NFL, so struggles against them (and thus losses) can be expected. But the Hawks need to focus on running against Dallas (109 ypg), Tennessee (112), Pittsburgh (128) and Arizona (132) if they fancy any shot at the playoffs.
Green Bay beat Detroit handily on Thanksgiving and has a great road to the final playoff spot, with the second-easiest scheduled in the league over the final six weeks (including games vs. Carolina, Chicago and the Giants). Atlanta has the easiest slate, with games against Carolina, Chicago and the Jets.
If the Hawks fall from 6-3 to 9-8, they likely will miss the postseason.
Bad strategy: The single-high, high, high safety
Is anyone else sick and tired of seeing Quandre Diggs 15 yards away from the action on almost every play? Because the Hawks play the single-high (high, high) safety, they often are playing 10 on 11.
Diggs makes at most one impact play a game (a third-down stop, etc.). Carroll and Clint Hurtt never vary off this scheme, even when the opposing team has no deep threat to speak of. That was the case against the 49ers, who largely rely on YAC from Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel to move the ball. As usual, Diggs stayed deep to “help” the corner covering the one long-route receiver, and the 49ers’ stars chewed up Seattle’s terrible zone.
Unless Carroll plans to play his safeties differently, Diggs doesn’t need to be on the team in 2024 – there is no reason to pay a non-factor $11 million. The Hawks should let him go, along with Jamal Adams, and save themselves $17 million against the salary cap.
Just put a low-paid guy with some speed at deep safety.