As Sam Darnold and the Seahawks prepare for the rematch Darnold predicted was coming, everyone is wondering whether he and the offense will snap out of the slow-start funk that has plagued them for the past couple of months.
Everyone is wondering how many interceptions he might throw against the 49ers – and how many times the defense might have to bail him and his side out.
He is seeking his first playoff win as a starter, and he needs to play up to the challenge – not force his defense to carry the entire day again.
“Sam’s a great quarterback, a Pro Bowler, and he’s going to play his best football now,” AJ Barner said. “He’s already starting to do that. We’re extremely confident in him and the offensive group as a collective. We’re going to start playing our best football.”
Klint Kubiak is supposedly a strong candidate to be hired by one of the teams looking for new coaches, but he has not even been able to lead his Seattle offense consistently for the past two months.
Darnold and the offense have been terrible in the first half for weeks now, ranking 31st in touchdown rate since Week 12. They went from the best passing team through 10 weeks to middle of the pack (19th in dropback EPA).
They have won seven straight games because their defense is the best in the league and their running game has come alive as their passing attack has gone to sleep.
But the running game is still not consistent, despite three straight games over 160 yards. Darnold, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the rest of the passing crew need to step up in the postseason – starting Saturday against the 49ers.
They need to get back to what they were doing earlier in the season, scoring touchdowns early and taking leads into halftime.
They were the most explosive passing team in the NFL – thanks to the Darnold-JSN connection – over the first 10 games. One out of every six passes went for 20 yards or more. That fell off starting with the first game vs. the Rams.
Defenses have shifted their focus to the back end to stop JSN. And they are blitzing Darnold more as well. He has seen way too many free rushers in recent games – Carolina blitzed him 55% of the time, seemingly putting a defender in his face on every play.
In Week 18, the 49ers did not blitz a lot, but they pressured Darnold about 37% of the time. In the first 10 games, he was sacked just nine times. In the past seven games, he has gone down 17 times.
But he has not been throwing as many interceptions. Since he threw four against the Rams in Week 11, he has tossed just four others (two of them against the Rams in the rematch). His interception rate since Week 12 is just 1.7%, which is lower than both Brock Purdy (3.3%) and Matthew Stafford (2.2%) – according to research by Hawk Blogger.
Although he had no TD passes in Week 18 against the 49ers, he did complete 20 of 26 passes and did not throw a pick. And he hit some key passes to help seal the 13-3 win.
The 49ers have held Darnold and company to 13 points in both games this season, the fewest Seattle has scored against anyone. Clearly, even without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, Robert Saleh’s 49ers defense is a tough matchup for Kubiak, Darnold and crew.
After two meetings, Kubiak should have an idea of how to attack that defense now. The Hawks ran for 180 yards in Week 18, so he needs to lean on that and play action, where Darnold excels. Keep the motion and misdirection coming. Make sure Rashid Shaheed is a big part of it. Use Barner and Elijah Arroyo (if the latter is activated off IR). And scheme it so JSN gets some big shots against the 49ers.
A fast start would give the defense an extra advantage, and Darnold could be even more aggressive. This is not the time to be cautious and conservative. As Mike Macdonald often says, Darnold needs to “let it rip.”
That’s the best way for the quarterback to finally get his first playoff win.
Here is what others are saying about Darnold ahead of this game …
CHAWK TALK: Everything being said about the Seahawks 
Sam Darnold is my only concern, he is the weak link on the team. Past games, I’ve seen him play at time with that panic look in his eyes, when he wasn’t pressured by the defense in his face. At times, he lets his emotions get out of control. He is a emotional guy, not a good/strong quality feature for a QB to win the Super Bowl.
He needs to throw the ball away when nothing is open. Instead of trying to force the ball to a well covered receiver just to make something happen, when they are behind in points .
The offense coach also needs to design more role out action pass plays to keep the defense guessing. Which buys Sam more time.
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In fairness, the offense opened the last Niners game with a 66-yd drive that almost certainly would have ended in a touchdown if not for an inexplicable play call on first-and-goal from the 1.
Remaining first half possessions:
In other words, every first half possession led to a scoring opportunity. Darnold isn’t to blame for Myers’ missed FG or Kubiak’s play calling.
The second half was punt, FG, missed FG after the 89-yard drive that put the game away.
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Need to finish those drives with touchdowns. Let’s see if they can do it Saturday …
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