If Sam Darnold does indeed sign with the Seahawks, would he be the next Russell Wilson or just the next Geno Smith – a long-term answer or another so-called placeholder?

National media is abuzz with the projection that Darnold and the Seahawks are headed for a quick marriage – as soon as Monday, when teams can agree to deals with outside free agents.

Along with that informed speculation comes plenty of this: “Darnold would replace Smith as the bridge quarterback while Seattle looks to draft a potential franchise QB in 2025 or 2026.”

But why couldn’t the not-yet 28-year-old Darnold be the longish-term answer for Seattle?

People are getting caught up in the idea that you have to draft a QB to be your so-called franchise passer and take you to the Super Bowl. It’s the Brady-Mahomes Effect.

Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes — and now Jalen Hurts — have made it seem like there is only one path to a long-term QB. Over the past 14 seasons, that trio has seven Super Bowl wins (and five losses) with the teams that drafted them (Brady added another win with the Bucs in there, too).

But there are plenty of examples of teams that reached – even won — the Super Bowl with QBs who came to them via other methods. In the 2000s, that list included Kurt Warner (Rams), Trent Dilfer (Ravens), Kerry Collins (Giants), Brad Johnson (Bucs), Rich Gannon (Raiders), Matt Hasselbeck (Seahawks) and Drew Brees (Saints).

Last season’s playoffs featured three former first-round picks who had rejuvenated themselves with their new teams: Baker Mayfield (Bucs), Jared Goff (Lions) and Darnold (Vikings).

Who’s to say Darnold, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 draft, cannot continue to play well outside Minnesota? Who’s to say he can’t become a late-blooming franchise passer like Goff has become? Who’s to say he can’t be like Matthew Stafford, who went from losing in Detroit to winning a Super Bowl with the Rams?

Darnold’s success in his unexpected breakout season came despite a shaky Minnesota offensive line that ranked 30^th in pressure allowed. Darnold still threw 35 touchdown passes even as he was sacked 48 times. He was a top-10 passer under pressure.

Darnold has had some very good coaching the past two years, under Kyle Shanahan’s staff with the 49ers and Kevin O’Connell’s crew with the Vikings. New Seattle OC Klint Kubiak was on that 49ers staff in 2023, so he knows Darnold pretty well. If the Hawks do make Darnold their new starter, it will be because Kubiak is confident Darnold can run his passing offense as well as he ran Minnesota’s.

Of course, it is no given that Darnold will just fly straight to Seattle and sign a deal. While Jordan Schultz reported that he is Seattle’s top choice “and there is mutual interest on his behalf as well,” Darnold is “open to multiple opportunities,” per Josina Anderson, who added he wants a multi-year deal.

The major question: What will he cost? There has been a lot of speculation on that point.

As Dianna Russini reported Friday, “Sam Darnold’s market has been all over the map the last 24 hours. Once it became known that Seattle was interested in trading with the Las Vegas Raiders last night for Geno Smith, Darnold’s market improved.”

The Seahawks traded Smith because he did not like their offer, reportedly in the $35 million range per year. He wants $45 million and apparently felt insulted enough by Seattle’s offer to request a trade.

Scuttlebutt says Darnold’s market might be around $30 million, based on the fact that the seven-year veteran has just the one good season with the Vikings to lean on. It would not be surprising if the Hawks gave him a similar deal to the one they gave Smith in 2023 – laden with escalators and/or incentives or perhaps an option bonus for more years triggered by high performance.

It is entirely possible that Darnold’s 2024 season was a flash in the pan and that he really is nothing more than a possible “bridge” quarterback. But it is also quite possible that he turned the corner in Minnesota and understands how to play quarterback in the NFL now – and that he will continue to blossom under a good coaching staff.

If he signs with Seattle, as everyone expects, let’s see what he does before labeling him merely a “bridge” QB. Maybe he turns out to be Mike Macdonald’s long-term starter and helps the Hawks win a Super Bowl.